Estimate vs actual: job margin while the job is still open

The problem

The estimate says how much you should make on a job. The actual says how much you really made.

The problem is timing: the actual arrives once the work is done, when the hours are already spent and the costs already paid. If the margin is gone, you find out when you can no longer fix it.

What you need is a third number: the margin at completion, calculated while the job is still open.

The margin "at completion"

The margin at completion (estimate at completion) is a projection: given what you've used so far and how far along you are, where will you land?

The logic is simple. If halfway through you've already burned 70% of the budgeted hours, you're running faster than budget. Project that pace to the end and see where you land — almost always over the estimate.

The number to watch isn't how much you've spent: it's the ratio between progress and hours used. At 50% done you should have used about 50% of the hours. If you've used 70%, the margin at completion drops — and you see it now, not in December.

The sum is: hours at completion = hours used ÷ progress. From there, margin at completion = price − (hours at completion × hourly cost) − other costs.

Try it here

This is an example job — a construction firm. Price €120,000, budget 800 hours, budgeted margin 25%. Advance the progress with the SAL buttons and watch the margin at completion move.

Halfway through (50% done) you've already used 560 hours: 70% of the budget. At that pace you'd close at 1,120 hours, 40% over the estimate — and the margin at completion collapses from 25% to 13%, nearly half.

But watch what happens at 75%: the pace is back under control, the projection returns toward budget and the margin recovers to 22%. The job closes at 23.5%, versus the 25% budgeted: a point and a half lost, not a disaster.

The difference between a disaster and a point and a half is when you saw it. At 50% you could still correct course. On the actual, you couldn't.

Do it on your data

On the example the story is clear. On your real jobs, with your hours and your costs, the margin at completion is the number that tells you whether a job still stands up while you're doing it.

You collect the hours with LoomX Tracker — everyone logs them from their phone — and you build the job margin with LoomX Analyst, which reads your data. Or let's talk: 30 minutes, no sales follow-up.

See also: Management control for your business: the practical guide, Revenue is growing but profits aren't? Here are 3 hidden causes and the real cases of the businesses we work with.